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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 12 at the 17

New England Patriots 27 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(:16) 3-S.Gostkowski 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.55 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.77 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 17, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +2.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.52 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 27, worth -0.54 EP
PUNT +0.52 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model