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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 9 at the 45

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – New England Patriots 30

What Actually Happened

(12:32) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete short left to 11-D.Moncrief. Penalty on PIT-78-A.Villanueva, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.36 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 45, worth -2.15 EP
KICK -0.65 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model