4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 70

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(10:10) 4-J.Berry punts 50 yards to NE 20, Center-57-K.Canaday. 80-G.Olszewski to NE 35 for 15 yards (37-J.Dangerfield).

The Three Options

GO +0.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.48 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 70, worth -3.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.35 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 28, worth -1.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.35 EP