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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 47

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – New England Patriots 17

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete short left to 11-D.Moncrief (23-P.Chung).

The Three Options

GO +1.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.54 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 47, worth -2.44 EP
KICK -0.89 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 13, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model