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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
@
MIA Home

Miami Dolphins

HC Brian Flores
Sunday 2019-09-08 · 13:00 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US ☀️ Clear Spread -7.0 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

BAL
48.7%
MIA
51.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIA offense: -0.187 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • QB edge to MIA: Ryan Fitzpatrick (MIA) +0.153 vs Lamar Jackson (BAL) -0.064 EPA/dropback
  • BAL defense: -0.136 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • MIA defense: +0.045 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

BAL 23
–
MIA 24
Projected margin: MIA by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

BAL

Marquise Brown WR Questionable Foot
Brandon Carr CB Questionable Hip
Cyrus Jones CB Questionable Finger
Patrick Ricard RB Questionable Foot

MIA

Trent Harris DE Questionable Foot
Charles Harris DE Questionable Wrist
Johnson Bademosi CB Questionable Hip
Danny Isidora G Questionable Hamstring
Bobby McCain CB Questionable Shoulder
Albert Wilson WR Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 59
–
MIA 10

Prediction missed by 50 pts on margin, 22 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:38 TD BAL (10:38) 21-M.Ingram right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 6 – MIA 0
  • Q1 08:46 TD BAL (8:46) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 15-M.Brown for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIA-29-M.Fitzpatrick, Illegal Use of Hands, declined. BAL 13 – MIA 0
  • Q1 04:28 TD BAL (4:28) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 15-M.Brown for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 20 – MIA 0
  • Q2 13:56 TD BAL (13:56) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 83-W.Snead for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 27 – MIA 0
  • Q2 10:43 FG MIA (10:43) (Field Goal formation) 7-J.Sanders 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack. BAL 28 – MIA 3
  • Q2 06:56 TD BAL (6:56) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 80-M.Boykin for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIA-29-M.Fitzpatrick, Defensive Holding, declined. BAL 34 – MIA 3
  • Q2 01:46 TD BAL (1:46) 21-M.Ingram left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 41 – MIA 3
  • Q2 00:18 TD MIA (:18) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 18-P.Williams for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 42 – MIA 9
  • Q3 07:58 TD BAL (7:58) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 42-P.Ricard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 48 – MIA 10
  • Q3 00:27 FG BAL (:27) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 52 – MIA 10
  • Q4 09:30 TD BAL (9:30) (Shotgun) 3-R.Griffin pass short left to 89-M.Andrews for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 58 – MIA 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 16 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (5:55) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 58 yards to BAL 10, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 27-C.Jones.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 5 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (2:24) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 52 yards to BAL 5, Center-46-T.Pepper. 27-C.Jones ran ob at BAL 20 for 15 yards (44-D.Lacey).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 19 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 19% p(FG) 62%

    (10:43) (Field Goal formation) 7-J.Sanders 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (8:35) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 56 yards to MIA 10, Center-46-M.Cox. 19-J.Grant MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by BAL-28-J.Bethel at MIA 10. 28-J.Bethel to MIA 10 for no gain (19-J.Grant).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 10 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (4:31) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 52 yards to BAL 21, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by MIA-35-W.Aikens.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 1 at the 70
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (2:59) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 41-A.Levine. 41-A.Levine up the middle to MIA 10 for 60 yards (19-J.Grant).

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 15 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (13:14) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 55 yards to BAL 15, Center-46-T.Pepper. 27-C.Jones ran ob at BAL 29 for 14 yards (29-M.Fitzpatrick).

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 14 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (5:55) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 51 yards to BAL 16, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 27-C.Jones.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 5 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 93%

    (:27) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 98%

    (9:30) (Shotgun) 3-R.Griffin pass short left to 89-M.Andrews for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 15 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (8:09) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 54 yards to BAL 21, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by MIA-47-V.Biegel. MIA-52-R.McMillan was injured during the play.