Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 15 at the 75

Miami Dolphins 10 – Baltimore Ravens 59

What Actually Happened

(8:09) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 54 yards to BAL 21, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by MIA-47-V.Biegel. MIA-52-R.McMillan was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -2.67 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.89 EP
75% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 75, worth -4.21 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model