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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 19 at the 36

Miami Dolphins 0 – Baltimore Ravens 28

What Actually Happened

(10:43) (Field Goal formation) 7-J.Sanders 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
  • 19% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.94 EP
  • 81% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 36, worth -1.85 EP
KICK +0.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 46, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model