Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 16 at the 68

Miami Dolphins 0 – Baltimore Ravens 14

(5:55) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 58 yards to BAL 10, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 27-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -2.14 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.75 EP
76% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 68, worth -3.67 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model