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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 57

Miami Dolphins 0 – Baltimore Ravens 21

What Actually Happened

(2:24) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 52 yards to BAL 5, Center-46-T.Pepper. 27-C.Jones ran ob at BAL 20 for 15 yards (44-D.Lacey).

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.80 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 57, worth -2.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 17, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model