4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 3

Baltimore Ravens 52 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(9:30) (Shotgun) 3-R.Griffin pass short left to 89-M.Andrews for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.56 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 3, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model