Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 73

Miami Dolphins 3 – Baltimore Ravens 35

(4:31) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 52 yards to BAL 21, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by MIA-35-W.Aikens.

The Three Options

GO -2.27 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.79 EP
69% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 73, worth -4.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model