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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 16

Baltimore Ravens 49 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(:27) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +1.53 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.06 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 16, worth -0.75 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model