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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 15 at the 70

Miami Dolphins 10 – Baltimore Ravens 42

What Actually Happened

(13:14) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 55 yards to BAL 15, Center-46-T.Pepper. 27-C.Jones ran ob at BAL 29 for 14 yards (29-M.Fitzpatrick).

The Three Options

GO -2.32 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.57 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 70, worth -3.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 28, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model