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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
@
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New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
Sunday 2019-01-20 · 15:05 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.0 O/U 55.0

Win Probability

LA
38.8%
NO
61.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: +0.117 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • Drew Brees (NO): +0.307 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NO offense: +0.089 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • NO defense: -0.040 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LA 24
–
NO 27
Projected margin: NO by 3 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 20

LA

No players on the report.

NO

Keith Kirkwood WR Out Calf
Benjamin Watson TE Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 20 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 26
–
NO 23

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:07 FG NO (10:07) 3-W.Lutz 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. LA 0 – NO 3
  • Q1 07:10 FG NO (7:10) 3-W.Lutz 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. LA 0 – NO 6
  • Q1 01:40 TD NO (1:40) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 45-G.Griffin for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 5, YAC 0 LA 0 – NO 12
  • Q2 09:49 FG LA (9:49) 4-G.Zuerlein 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 3 – NO 13
  • Q2 00:28 TD LA (:28) 30-T.Gurley left guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 9 – NO 13
  • Q3 08:37 TD NO (8:37) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 7-T.Hill for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass -3, YAC 5 LA 10 – NO 19
  • Q3 03:09 TD LA (3:09) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 89-T.Higbee for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 1, YAC 0 LA 16 – NO 20
  • Q4 05:06 FG LA (5:06) 4-G.Zuerlein 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 20 – NO 20
  • Q4 01:45 FG NO (1:45) 3-W.Lutz 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. LA 20 – NO 23
  • Q4 00:19 FG LA (:19) 4-G.Zuerlein 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 23 – NO 23
  • Q5 11:47 FG LA (11:47) 4-G.Zuerlein 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 26 – NO 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 7 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 92%

    (10:07) 3-W.Lutz 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 4 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 97%

    (7:10) 3-W.Lutz 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (5:35) 6-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to NO 32, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (14:23) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker pass short right to 37-S.Shields ran ob at LA 42 for 12 yards (31-C.Banjo). Pass 3, YAC 9

  • Q2 LA 4th & 6 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 93%

    (9:49) 4-G.Zuerlein 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (8:15) 6-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to LA 22, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 19-J.Natson.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 4 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (5:26) 6-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to NO 17, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 11-T.Lewis.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 14 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (2:00) 6-T.Morstead punts 45 yards to LA 29, Center-49-Z.Wood. 19-J.Natson to LA 29 for no gain (34-J.Hardee). PENALTY on LA-41-M.Christian, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 29.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (14:16) 6-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to NO 29, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-37-S.Shields.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 7 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 39%

    (14:56) 6-T.Morstead punts 34 yards to LA 13, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 19-J.Natson.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 11 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (12:29) 6-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to NO 39, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 11-T.Lewis. PENALTY on LA-24-B.Countess, Chop Block, 15 yards, enforced at NO 39.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 17 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 26%

    (11:04) 6-T.Morstead punts 44 yards to LA 9, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (5:06) 4-G.Zuerlein 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 10 at the 13 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 95%

    (1:45) 3-W.Lutz 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 7 at the 30 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 78%

    (:19) 4-G.Zuerlein 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.