Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 14 at the 74

New Orleans Saints 13 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 6-T.Morstead punts 45 yards to LA 29, Center-49-Z.Wood. 19-J.Natson to LA 29 for no gain (34-J.Hardee). PENALTY on LA-41-M.Christian, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 29.

The Three Options

GO -2.05 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.14 EP
68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 74, worth -3.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model