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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 70

New Orleans Saints 13 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(8:15) 6-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to LA 22, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 19-J.Natson.

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.89 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 70, worth -3.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 28, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model