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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 60

Los Angeles Rams 3 – New Orleans Saints 13

What Actually Happened

(5:26) 6-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to NO 17, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 11-T.Lewis.

The Three Options

GO -0.63 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.24 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 60, worth -3.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 19, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model