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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 70

Los Angeles Rams 0 – New Orleans Saints 13

What Actually Happened

(14:23) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker pass short right to 37-S.Shields ran ob at LA 42 for 12 yards (31-C.Banjo). Pass 3, YAC 9

The Three Options

GO -1.49 EP
What Happened
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.25 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 70, worth -3.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 28, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model