Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 14 at the 79

Los Angeles Rams 10 – New Orleans Saints 13

(14:16) 6-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to NO 29, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-37-S.Shields.

The Three Options

GO -2.62 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.62 EP
68% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 79, worth -4.63 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model