Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 11 at the 88

Los Angeles Rams 17 – New Orleans Saints 20

What Actually Happened

(12:29) 6-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to NO 39, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 11-T.Lewis. PENALTY on LA-24-B.Countess, Chop Block, 15 yards, enforced at NO 39.

The Three Options

GO -2.92 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.80 EP
63% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 88, worth -5.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model