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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 17 at the 53

New Orleans Saints 20 – Los Angeles Rams 17

What Actually Happened

(11:04) 6-T.Morstead punts 44 yards to LA 9, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.56 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 53, worth -2.90 EP
KICK -1.57 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 15, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model