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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 6

Los Angeles Rams 17 – New Orleans Saints 20

What Actually Happened

(5:06) 4-G.Zuerlein 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +2.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.00 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 6, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.67 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model