4th & Data
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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
@
DAL Home

Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
Saturday 2019-01-05 · 20:15 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread 2.5 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

SEA
54.0%
DAL
46.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SEA offense: +0.160 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • DAL offense: +0.061 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • Russell Wilson (SEA): +0.191 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

SEA 26
–
DAL 24
Projected margin: SEA by 2 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

SEA

Tre Madden RB Doubtful Hamstring
J.R. Sweezy G Questionable Foot

DAL

David Irving DE Out Ankle
Xavier Su'a-Filo G Doubtful Ankle
Tavon Austin WR Questionable Groin
Darian Thompson S Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 22
–
DAL 24

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:54 FG DAL (9:54) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. SEA 0 – DAL 3
  • Q2 07:05 FG SEA (7:05) (Field Goal formation) 11-S.Janikowski 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 3 – DAL 3
  • Q2 01:47 FG SEA (1:47) (Field Goal formation) 11-S.Janikowski 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 6 – DAL 3
  • Q2 00:28 TD DAL (:28) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 13-M.Gallup for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 6 – DAL 9
  • Q3 02:03 TD SEA (2:03) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 12 – DAL 10
  • Q4 12:32 TD DAL (12:32) 21-E.Elliott right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 14 – DAL 16
  • Q4 02:14 TD DAL (2:14) 4-D.Prescott up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 14 – DAL 23
  • Q4 01:22 TD SEA (1:22) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 21-J.McKissic for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 20 – DAL 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 8 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 90%

    (9:54) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (8:25) (Punt formation) 4-M.Dickson punts 44 yards to DAL 23, Center-69-T.Ott. 10-T.Austin to DAL 23 for no gain (28-J.Coleman).

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 2 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 28%

    (5:42) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 39 yards to SEA 13, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 23 for 10 yards (48-J.Thomas; 38-J.Heath).

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 10 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (3:29) (Punt formation) 4-M.Dickson punts 57 yards to DAL 20, Center-69-T.Ott. 10-T.Austin to DAL 29 for 9 yards (59-J.Martin, 49-SM.Griffin).

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 11 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (2:20) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 45 yards to SEA 27, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-35-K.Frazier.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 13 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (:14) (Punt formation) 4-M.Dickson punts 56 yards to DAL 20, Center-69-T.Ott. 10-T.Austin for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on DAL-29-C.Goodwin, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 24.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 8 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (10:02) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 50 yards to SEA 10, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 22 for 12 yards (48-J.Thomas).

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 7 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 97%

    (7:05) (Field Goal formation) 11-S.Janikowski 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 10 at the 40
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 56%

    (3:17) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 58 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 7 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 87%

    (1:47) (Field Goal formation) 11-S.Janikowski 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (13:31) (Punt formation) 4-M.Dickson punts 51 yards to DAL 20, Center-69-T.Ott. 10-T.Austin to DAL 29 for 9 yards (28-J.Coleman).

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 1 at the 62
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (11:15) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 49 yards to SEA 13, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 12 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 39%

    (8:04) (Punt formation) 4-M.Dickson punts 45 yards to DAL 2, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-28-J.Coleman.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 10 at the 98
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (7:06) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 42 yards to DAL 44, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 16-T.Lockett to DAL 44 for no gain (29-C.Goodwin).

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 5 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 59%

    (4:55) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 89-D.Baldwin pushed ob at DAL 17 for 22 yards (24-C.Awuzie).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (11:08) (Punt formation) 4-M.Dickson punts 60 yards to DAL 11, Center-69-T.Ott. 10-T.Austin pushed ob at SEA 38 for 51 yards (84-E.Dickson).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (7:30) (Punt formation) 4-M.Dickson punts 47 yards to DAL 30, Center-69-T.Ott. 11-C.Beasley to DAL 37 for 7 yards (28-J.Coleman).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 4 at the 7 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%

    (1:22) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 21-J.McKissic for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.