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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 62

Dallas Cowboys 10 – Seattle Seahawks 6

What Actually Happened

(11:15) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 49 yards to SEA 13, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.16 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 62, worth -3.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 21, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP