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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 8 at the 60

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(10:02) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 50 yards to SEA 10, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 22 for 12 yards (48-J.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.92 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 60, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 19, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model