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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 98

Dallas Cowboys 10 – Seattle Seahawks 6

What Actually Happened

(7:06) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 42 yards to DAL 44, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 16-T.Lockett to DAL 44 for no gain (29-C.Goodwin).

The Three Options

GO -3.68 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.28 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 98, worth -6.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (115 yards).

PUNT -2.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 53, worth -2.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model