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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 7

Seattle Seahawks 14 – Dallas Cowboys 24

What Actually Happened

(1:22) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 21-J.McKissic for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.49 EP
What Happened
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +5.77 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 7, worth -0.11 EP
KICK +2.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.74 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.23 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model