4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 2 at the 67

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(8:25) (Punt formation) 4-M.Dickson punts 44 yards to DAL 23, Center-69-T.Ott. 10-T.Austin to DAL 23 for no gain (28-J.Coleman).

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.23 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 67, worth -4.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.35 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 25, worth -1.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP