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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 52

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(5:42) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 39 yards to SEA 13, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 23 for 10 yards (48-J.Thomas; 38-J.Heath).

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.01 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 52, worth -2.52 EP
KICK -1.09 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.46 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 15, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP