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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 39

Seattle Seahawks 6 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(4:55) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 89-D.Baldwin pushed ob at DAL 17 for 22 yards (24-C.Awuzie).

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.61 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 39, worth -2.12 EP
KICK -0.09 EP
  • 59% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 48, worth -2.82 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model