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New York Jets

HC Todd Bowles
@
NE Home

New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
Sunday 2018-12-30 · 13:00 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US ☀️ Clear Spread 14.0 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

NYJ
24.2%
NE
75.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.098 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • QB edge to NE: Tom Brady (NE) +0.170 vs Sam Darnold (NYJ) -0.011 EPA/dropback
  • NE offense: +0.069 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • NYJ defense: +0.094 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 19
–
NE 28
Projected margin: NE by 9 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

NYJ

Morris Claiborne CB Out Shoulder
Quincy Enunwa WR Out Ankle
Jermaine Kearse WR Out Achilles
Kevin Pierre-Louis LB Out Shoulder
Jordan Jenkins LB Questionable Ankle

NE

Jacob Hollister TE Out Hamstring
LaAdrian Waddle T Questionable Illness
Dwayne Allen TE Questionable Knee
Brandon King LB Questionable Knee
Cordarrelle Patterson WR Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 3
–
NE 38

Prediction missed by 26 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:23 TD NE (5:23) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 28-J.White for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 26th TD pass of season, 2nd-most all-time in a season after turning 40 (Brady 30, 2017). Patriots 400 + pts over 2 pts for season, 12th straight season with 400+ pts, extends NFL record. NYJ 0 – NE 6
  • Q1 00:58 FG NYJ (:58) 2-J.Myers 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. NYJ 3 – NE 7
  • Q2 12:57 TD NE (12:57) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 34-R.Burkhead for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NYJ-98-M.Pennel, Illegal Use of Hands, declined. NYJ 3 – NE 13
  • Q2 11:12 TD NE (11:12) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 13-P.Dorsett for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 3 – NE 20
  • Q3 11:04 TD NE (11:04) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at NYJ 46 for -5 yards (70-A.Butler). FUMBLES (70-A.Butler) [91-D.Wise], RECOVERED by NE-53-K.Van Noy at NYJ 46. 53-K.Van Noy for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 3 – NE 27
  • Q4 09:44 FG NE (9:44) 3-S.Gostkowski 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NYJ 3 – NE 31
  • Q4 03:30 TD NE (3:30) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 11-J.Edelman for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 29th career game with 4+ TD passes, 3rd-most all-time. NYJ 3 – NE 37

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 7 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 30%

    (11:22) 6-R.Allen punts 33 yards to NYJ 17, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 11 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (10:26) 4-L.Edwards punts 51 yards to NE 33, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 11-J.Edelman to NE 41 for 8 yards (40-T.Cannon).

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 89%

    (:58) 2-J.Myers 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 5
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%

    (4:34) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short middle to 11-R.Anderson (24-S.Gilmore).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 1 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 65%

    (:32) 28-J.White up the middle to NYJ 36 for no gain (92-L.Williams).

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (13:22) 4-L.Edwards punts 47 yards to NE 30, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 11-J.Edelman to NE 28 for -2 yards (40-T.Cannon).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 20 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (12:29) 6-R.Allen punts 43 yards to NYJ 39, Center-49-J.Cardona. 19-A.Roberts pushed ob at NYJ 39 for no gain (18-M.Slater).

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 9
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 97%

    (5:14) 70-D.Dozier reported in as eligible. 25-E.McGuire right guard to NE 9 for no gain (90-M.Brown; 52-E.Roberts).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 1 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.37 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (1:20) 6-R.Allen punts 44 yards to NYJ 13, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts. PENALTY on NYJ-41-B.Skrine, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at NYJ 13.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 15 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (12:43) 4-L.Edwards punts 45 yards to NE 24, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 11-J.Edelman to NE 36 for 12 yards (45-R.Miles).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 2 at the 19
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 92%

    (9:44) 3-S.Gostkowski 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (8:46) 4-L.Edwards punts 47 yards to NE 26, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 11-J.Edelman to NE 36 for 10 yards (45-R.Miles).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 57 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (2:22) 4-L.Edwards punts 47 yards to NE 10, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 11-J.Edelman.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 14 at the 94 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (:35) 6-R.Allen punts 39 yards to NE 45, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-50-R.Humber.