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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 77

New York Jets 3 – New England Patriots 21

What Actually Happened

(13:22) 4-L.Edwards punts 47 yards to NE 30, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 11-J.Edelman to NE 28 for -2 yards (40-T.Cannon).

The Three Options

GO -2.50 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.50 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 77, worth -4.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 34, worth -1.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model