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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 19

New England Patriots 28 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(9:44) 3-S.Gostkowski 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +2.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.77 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 19, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 29, worth -1.29 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP