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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 9

New York Jets 3 – New England Patriots 28

What Actually Happened

(5:14) 70-D.Dozier reported in as eligible. 25-E.McGuire right guard to NE 9 for no gain (90-M.Brown; 52-E.Roberts).

The Three Options

GO +3.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.36 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 9, worth +0.19 EP
KICK +1.97 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model