Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 73

New York Jets 3 – New England Patriots 31

(8:46) 4-L.Edwards punts 47 yards to NE 26, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 11-J.Edelman to NE 36 for 10 yards (45-R.Miles).

The Three Options

GO -2.26 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.65 EP
67% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 73, worth -4.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model