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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 57

New England Patriots 28 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(1:20) 6-R.Allen punts 44 yards to NYJ 13, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts. PENALTY on NYJ-41-B.Skrine, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at NYJ 13.

The Three Options

GO +0.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.08 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 57, worth -3.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 17, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.37 EP