4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 5

New York Jets 3 – New England Patriots 21

What Actually Happened

(4:34) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short middle to 11-R.Anderson (24-S.Gilmore).

The Three Options

GO +2.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.09 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 5, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.72 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model