Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 14 at the 94

New England Patriots 38 – New York Jets 3

(:35) 6-R.Allen punts 39 yards to NE 45, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-50-R.Humber.

The Three Options

GO -2.72 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.20 EP
66% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 94, worth -4.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model