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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 57

New York Jets 3 – New England Patriots 38

What Actually Happened

(2:22) 4-L.Edwards punts 47 yards to NE 10, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 11-J.Edelman.

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +1.85 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 57, worth -2.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 17, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model