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Detroit Lions

HC Matt Patricia
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Green Bay Packers

HC Joe Philbin
Sunday 2018-12-30 · 13:00 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US 🌨 Snow Spread 7.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

DET
39.9%
GB
60.1%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET offense: -0.107 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • QB edge to DET: DeShone Kizer (GB) -0.221 vs Matthew Stafford (DET) -0.019 EPA/dropback (GB starting DeShone Kizer in place of Aaron Rodgers)
  • GB offense: +0.103 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • GB defense: +0.043 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (17th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DET 19
–
GB 21
Projected margin: GB by 2 Projected total: 40

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

DET

A'Shawn Robinson DT Out Knee
DeShawn Shead CB Out Knee
Luke Willson TE Out Concussion
Jamal Agnew CB Questionable Knee
LeGarrette Blount RB Questionable Knee
Quandre Diggs S Questionable Back
Kenny Golladay WR Questionable Chest
Damon Harrison DT Questionable Ankle
Nevin Lawson CB Questionable Ankle

GB

Jason Spriggs T Doubtful Concussion
Equanimeous St. Brown WR Doubtful Concussion
Davante Adams WR Questionable Knee
Jaire Alexander CB Questionable Groin
Kentrell Brice S Questionable Ankle
David Bakhtiari T Questionable Hip
Fadol Brown DE Questionable Toe
Lane Taylor G Questionable Knee
Lucas Patrick G Questionable Abdomen

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 31
–
GB 0

Prediction missed by 33 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:01 TD DET (3:01) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 13-T.Jones for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 6 – GB 0
  • Q2 10:41 TD DET (10:41) (Field Goal formation) 5-M.Prater pass short left to 87-L.Toilolo for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 13 – GB 0
  • Q2 01:11 TD DET (1:11) 34-Z.Zenner right tackle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 20 – GB 0
  • Q3 03:12 FG DET (3:12) 5-M.Prater 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. DET 24 – GB 0
  • Q4 06:59 TD DET (6:59) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 13-T.Jones for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 30 – GB 0

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (14:09) 6-S.Martin punts 53 yards to GB 21, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 38-T.Williams.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 6 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (12:07) 6-J.Scott punts 31 yards to DET 44, Center-43-H.Bradley, downed by GB-93-R.Gilbert.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 9 at the 35
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 59%

    (9:47) 6-S.Martin punts 29 yards to GB 6, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-17-A.Jones.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 4 at the 88
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (8:12) 6-J.Scott punts 44 yards to DET 44, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 13-T.Jones.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (1:39) 6-J.Scott punts 53 yards to DET 22, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 13-T.Jones.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 3 at the 8
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 97%

    (10:41) (Field Goal formation) 5-M.Prater pass short left to 87-L.Toilolo for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 5 at the 49
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 22%

    (6:42) 6-J.Scott punts 35 yards to DET 14, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 13-T.Jones.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 6 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (:09) 6-J.Scott punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-43-H.Bradley, Touchback.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 8 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 42%

    (8:32) 6-S.Martin punts 32 yards to GB 9, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 37-J.Jackson.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 1 at the 82
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP
    p(convert) 75%

    (7:12) 6-J.Scott punts 50 yards to DET 32, Center-43-H.Bradley, downed by GB-82-J.Moore.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 8 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 82%

    (3:12) 5-M.Prater 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 5 at the 21
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 87%

    (:02) (Shotgun) 9-D.Kizer pass incomplete short middle to 85-R.Tonyan.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 6 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (13:33) 6-S.Martin punts 47 yards to GB 28, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 37-J.Jackson to GB 37 for 9 yards (47-T.Walker). PENALTY on GB-28-T.Brown, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at GB 28.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 9 at the 49
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 22%

    (11:04) (Shotgun) 9-D.Kizer scrambles right end to DET 37 for 12 yards (40-J.Davis).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 3 at the 30
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 71%

    (9:40) (Shotgun) 9-D.Kizer pass incomplete deep right to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling (23-D.Slay).