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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 41

Detroit Lions 21 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:32) 6-S.Martin punts 32 yards to GB 9, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 37-J.Jackson.

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.78 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 41, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -0.91 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model