Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 49

Green Bay Packers 0 – Detroit Lions 24

(11:04) (Shotgun) 9-D.Kizer scrambles right end to DET 37 for 12 yards (40-J.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP

What Happened

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.24 EP
64% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.72 EP

KICK -1.70 EP

22% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
78% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP

Chose GO ✓ matched the model