Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 75

Green Bay Packers 0 – Detroit Lions 7

(1:39) 6-J.Scott punts 53 yards to DET 22, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 13-T.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.96 EP
63% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 75, worth -4.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model