Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 75

Detroit Lions 24 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:33) 6-S.Martin punts 47 yards to GB 28, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 37-J.Jackson to GB 37 for 9 yards (47-T.Walker). PENALTY on GB-28-T.Brown, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at GB 28.

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.26 EP
58% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model