Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 9 at the 74

Detroit Lions 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

(14:09) 6-S.Martin punts 53 yards to GB 21, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 38-T.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -2.52 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.34 EP
65% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.64 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model