Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 55

Green Bay Packers 0 – Detroit Lions 21

(:09) 6-J.Scott punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-43-H.Bradley, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +0.91 EP
57% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 55, worth -1.00 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model