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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 21

Green Bay Packers 0 – Detroit Lions 24

What Actually Happened

(:02) (Shotgun) 9-D.Kizer pass incomplete short middle to 85-R.Tonyan.

The Three Options

GO +1.72 EP
What Happened
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.89 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 31, worth -1.27 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model