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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 49

Green Bay Packers 0 – Detroit Lions 14

What Actually Happened

(6:42) 6-J.Scott punts 35 yards to DET 14, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 13-T.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.09 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
KICK -1.59 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 14, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP