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Arizona Cardinals

HC Steve Wilks
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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
Sunday 2018-12-30 · 16:25 CenturyLink Field, Seattle US ☀️ Clear Spread 15.5 O/U 39.5

Win Probability

ARI
15.7%
SEA
84.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ARI offense: -0.184 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • QB edge to SEA: Russell Wilson (SEA) +0.217 vs Josh Rosen (ARI) -0.328 EPA/dropback
  • SEA offense: +0.158 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • SEA defense: +0.090 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • ARI defense: +0.074 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ARI 18
–
SEA 29
Projected margin: SEA by 11 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

ARI

Ricky Seals-Jones TE Out Shoulder
Markus Golden DE Questionable Ankle
Benson Mayowa DE Questionable Back

SEA

J.R. Sweezy G Doubtful Foot
D.J. Fluker G Questionable Hamstring
Bradley McDougald S Questionable Knee
Rashaad Penny RB Questionable Knee
Dion Jordan DE Questionable Knee
Tedric Thompson S Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 24
–
SEA 27

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:25 FG ARI (7:25) 5-Z.Gonzalez 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee. ARI 3 – SEA 0
  • Q1 01:31 TD SEA (1:31) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 16-T.Lockett for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 3 – SEA 6
  • Q2 11:43 TD SEA (11:43) (Shotgun) 32-C.Carson up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 3 – SEA 13
  • Q2 05:48 TD ARI (5:48) 3-J.Rosen pass short right to 11-L.Fitzgerald for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 9 – SEA 14
  • Q2 01:18 FG ARI (1:18) 5-Z.Gonzalez 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee. ARI 13 – SEA 14
  • Q3 04:40 TD SEA (4:40) 27-M.Davis right tackle for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 13 – SEA 20
  • Q3 00:21 TD ARI (:21) 4-M.Dickson punt is BLOCKED by 94-C.Malveaux, Center-69-T.Ott, RECOVERED by ARI-92-D.Gardeck at SEA 0. TOUCHDOWN. ARI 19 – SEA 21
  • Q4 06:25 FG SEA (6:25) 11-S.Janikowski 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. ARI 21 – SEA 24
  • Q4 01:54 FG ARI (1:54) 5-Z.Gonzalez 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee. ARI 24 – SEA 24
  • Q4 00:03 FG SEA (:03) 11-S.Janikowski 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. ARI 24 – SEA 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (13:34) 2-A.Lee punts 47 yards to SEA 19, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 11 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 93%

    (7:25) 5-Z.Gonzalez 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 14 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (5:35) 4-M.Dickson punts 46 yards to ARI 34, Center-69-T.Ott. 12-P.Cooper to ARI 39 for 5 yards (51-B.Mingo, 38-T.Madden).

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 1 at the 52
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 24%

    (3:57) 3-J.Rosen pass incomplete deep left to 11-L.Fitzgerald.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 9 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (9:20) 2-A.Lee punts 42 yards to SEA 13, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 17 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (7:20) 4-M.Dickson punts 21 yards to SEA 27, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-58-A.Calitro. Arz 92 Gardeck got hand on punted ball.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 14 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (3:43) 4-M.Dickson punts 54 yards to ARI 34, Center-69-T.Ott. 12-P.Cooper pushed ob at SEA 21 for 45 yards (51-B.Mingo).

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (:57) 4-M.Dickson punts 42 yards to ARI 33, Center-69-T.Ott. 12-P.Cooper to ARI 36 for 3 yards (35-M.Alexander).

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (13:54) 4-M.Dickson punts 44 yards to ARI 25, Center-69-T.Ott. 12-P.Cooper to ARI 19 for -6 yards (35-M.Alexander).

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 2 at the 73
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (11:50) 2-A.Lee punts 50 yards to SEA 23, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 18 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (10:47) 4-M.Dickson punts 60 yards to ARI 25, Center-69-T.Ott. 12-P.Cooper MUFFS catch, and recovers at ARI 20. 12-P.Cooper pushed ob at ARI 39 for 19 yards (24-S.Luani).

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 13 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 32%

    (7:38) 2-A.Lee punts 46 yards to SEA 2, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-32-D.Coleman.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69%

    (3:48) (No Huddle) 31-D.Johnson up the middle to ARI 44 for 5 yards (54-B.Wagner).

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 16 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (1:54) 2-A.Lee punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (:21) 4-M.Dickson punt is BLOCKED by 94-C.Malveaux, Center-69-T.Ott, RECOVERED by ARI-92-D.Gardeck at SEA 0. TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 1 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (12:35) 4-M.Dickson punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 13 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 86%

    (6:25) 11-S.Janikowski 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 12 at the 37 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 60%

    (1:54) 5-Z.Gonzalez 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.