Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 55

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Seattle Seahawks 14

(9:20) 2-A.Lee punts 42 yards to SEA 13, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.67 EP
68% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 55, worth -3.12 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model